Research

While much of my work remains proprietary, I publish select insights into my methods.

Singularity Trading: singularitytrading.io/research

Market Microstructure

Liquidity dynamics, order flow analysis, and cross-venue arbitrage in fragmented markets.

ML & RL

Adaptive execution under constraints, regime detection, and policy optimization for trading.

MEV & DeFi

Quantifying extraction costs, sandwich attack patterns, and MEV-aware portfolio management.

Prediction Markets

Probability coherence, resolution mechanics, and structural inefficiencies in prediction venues.

PhD Aim

Learning Under Adversarial Dynamics: MEV‑Aware Market Simulation and Multi‑Agent Reinforcement Learning

Current MARL research often relies on simplified games. I propose using MEV‑dominated blockchain markets as a high‑fidelity testbed for adversarial learning, policy convergence, and systemic fragility, bridging probabilistic regime modeling with strategic agent interaction. I plan to pursue a PhD centered on this agenda.

High‑Fidelity Adversarial Simulation

Build a mempool‑aware simulator that captures gas auctions, latency variability, and atomic sandwich/backrun mechanics to study equilibrium formation.

MARL Under Structural Constraints

Train heterogeneous agents (LPs, searchers, arbitrageurs) in non‑stationary, partially observable, delayed‑reward environments to analyze exploitation equilibria.

Regime‑Conditioned Policy Optimization

Build latent‑state observers from microstructure and on‑chain signals, conditioning policies on execution regimes (gas spikes, liquidity dry‑ups) to shift between aggressive and risk‑off behavior.

Market Mechanism Design

Use simulation data to identify tipping points where MEV incentives create systemic risk, then propose learning‑compatible rules to mitigate adversarial lock‑in.

Work in Progress | 2026

Equilibrium Execution: Game-Theoretic Optimal Trading Under Endogenous MEV on AMMs

Ongoing research

Modeling DEX execution as a Stackelberg game between traders and adaptive searchers, with artifact-backed evaluation across complexity regimes, calibration transfer, algorithm sensitivity, and out-of-distribution stress boundaries.

Read Research Notes MEV Reinforcement Learning DeFi
Latest Publication | 2025

Hybrid Regime Detection and Risk Management in Semiconductor Equities: A Bayesian HMM-LSTM Framework

SSRN 5366835

This research proposes a Bayesian HMM-LSTM framework to address high volatility and frequent regime shifts in semiconductor markets. By integrating probabilistic regime detection with long short-term memory networks, the model prevents inefficient capital allocation and provides robust risk management against geopolitical and macroeconomic shocks.

Read Full Paper Bayesian Inference HMM-LSTM Risk Management

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